Decision analysis

Decision analysis (DA) is the discipline comprising the philosophy, theory, methodology, and professional practice necessary to address important decisions in a formal manner. Decision analysis includes many procedures, methods, and tools for identifying, clearly representing, and formally assessing important aspects of a decision, for prescribing a recommended course of action by applying the maximum expected utility action axiom to a well-formed representation of the decision, and for translating the formal representation of a decision and its corresponding recommendation into insight for the decision maker and other stakeholders.

Graphical representation of decision analysis problems commonly use influence diagrams and decision trees. Such tools are used to represent the alternatives available to the decision maker, the uncertainty they involve, and evaluation measures representing how well objectives would be achieved in the final outcome. Uncertainties are represented through probabilities. The decision maker's attitude to risk is represented by utility functions and their attitude to trade-offs between conflicting objectives can be expressed using multi-attribute value functions or multi-attribute utility functions (if there is risk involved). In some cases, utility functions can be replaced by the probability of achieving uncertain aspiration levels. Decision analysis advocates choosing that decision whose consequences have the maximum expected utility (or which maximize the probability of achieving the uncertain aspiration level). Such decision analytic methods are used in a wide variety of fields, including business (planning, marketing, and negotiation), environmental remediation, health care research and management, energy exploration, litigation and dispute resolution, etc.

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