Foreign electoral intervention

Foreign electoral interventions are attempts by external powers, covertly or overtly, to influence elections, or their results.

Theoretical and empirical research on foreign electoral intervention is weak overall, however, a number of such studies have been conducted.

A 2016 study by Levin found that, among 938 global elections examined, the United States and Russia combined had involved themselves in about one out of nine (117), with the majority of those (68%) being through covert, rather than overt, actions. The same study found that "on average, an electoral intervention in favor of one side contesting the election will increase its vote share by about 3 percent," an effect large enough to have potentially changed the results in seven out of 14 US presidential elections occurring after 1960. According to the study, the U.S. intervened in 81 foreign elections between 1946 and 2000, while the Soviet Union or Russia intervened in 36.

In their 2012 study, Corstange and Marinov theorized in two types of foreign intervention: partisan intervention, where the foreign power takes a public stance on its support for one side, and process intervention, where the foreign power seeks "to support the rules of democratic contestation, irrespective of who wins" Their results from 1,703 participants found that partisan interventions had a polarizing effect on political and foreign relations views, with the side favored by the external power more likely to favor improvements in relations between the two, and having the converse effect for those opposed by the power.

Also in 2012, Shulman and Bloom theorized a number of distinct factors affecting the results of foreign interference:

Additionally, they theorized that national similarities between the foreign and domestic powers would decrease resentment, and may even render the interference welcome. In cases where national autonomy are of primary concern to the electorate, they predicted a diminished effect of the similarity or dissimilarity of the two powers on resentment. Conversely, they predicted that in cases where national identity was a primary concern, the importance of similarity or dissimilarity would have a greater impact.

In the Bolivian elections of 2002, the US, which had been financing the eradication of coca farms, instructed Ambassador Manuel Rocha to warn Bolivians against voting for socialist candidate Evo Morales, stating that doing so could "jeopardize American assistance and investment." The move largely backfired, increasing support for Morales, who finished second in the election.

In the 1964 Chilean elections the US Government supplied $2.6 million in funding for candidate Eduardo Frei Montalva, whose opponent, Salvador Allende was a prominent Marxist, as well as additional funding with the intention of harming Allende's reputation. Between 1960 and 1969, the Russian government funded the communist party of Chile at a rate of between $50,000 and $400,000 annually. As Gustafson phrased the situation:

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